# Emerging technologies ## Microsim ### Live player <div class="microsim-player"> <iframe src="https://editor.p5js.org/sciencenibber/full/mx0_jCBYa" width="100%" height="620" frameborder="0" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe> </div> <div class="microsim-fallback"> <img src="Microsims/thumbs/Emerging_technologies.png" alt="Emerging_technologies microsim poster" style="width:100%;border:1px solid #4445;border-radius:6px;"> <p><em>Live microsim (desktop) · <a href="https://editor.p5js.org/sciencenibber/sketches/mx0_jCBYa">open sketch in the p5.js editor</a></em></p> </div> **Editor URL:** https://editor.p5js.org/sciencenibber/sketches/mx0_jCBYa **Description (100 words):** This microsim visualizes how an emerging technology spreads using the Bass [[Diffusion|diffusion]] model, the classic quantitative account of new-product adoption. A small fraction of "innovators" adopt independently at rate p; the rest are "imitators" who adopt through word-of-mouth at rate q. The blue S-curve traces cumulative adoption toward the ultimate market size m, while the orange bell shows new adopters per year, peaking at year t* = ln(q/p)/(p+q). Drag the p, q, and m sliders to see how a technology's take-off speed, peak-adoption year, and saturation level shift. Larger q sharpens and delays the peak; larger p pulls early adoption forward. ```js // ===================================================================== // Article : Emerging technologies // Slug : Emerging_technologies // Wikitube : en.wikitube.io/wiki/Emerging_technologies // Room : Visualization // // Idea : Emerging technologies spread through a population the same // way an innovation diffuses: a few "innovators" adopt on // their own, then "imitators" pile in via word-of-mouth, // producing the familiar S-shaped cumulative-adoption curve // and a bell-shaped curve of new adopters per year. This // microsim plots both, live, from the Bass diffusion model. // Drag p (coefficient of innovation), q (coefficient of // imitation), and m (ultimate market size) and watch the // take-off point, the peak-adoption year t*, and the height // of the new-adopter bell move. // // Equation : Bass (1969). Fraction adopting per unit time // f(t) = (p+q)^2/p · e^-(p+q)t / (1 + (q/p) e^-(p+q)t)^2 // Cumulative fraction // F(t) = (1 - e^-(p+q)t) / (1 + (q/p) e^-(p+q)t) // Peak of new adopters at // t* = ln(q/p) / (p+q) (when q > p) // ===================================================================== // Rule §3 — single source of truth for title-line, URL line, save name. const ARTICLE = "Emerging_technologies"; // Rule §4 — disable the Friendly Error System for ship. p5.disableFriendlyErrors = true; // ---------- controls ---------- let pSlider; // coefficient of innovation p (external influence) let qSlider; // coefficient of imitation q (word-of-mouth) let mSlider; // ultimate market size m (millions of adopters) // ---------- layout constants (computed in setup) ---------- let plotL, plotR, plotT, plotB; // Accent palette (rule §8 — at most three). const COL_CUM = [40, 90, 200]; // blue : cumulative adoption (S-curve) const COL_NEW = [220, 130, 40]; // orange: new adopters per year (bell) const COL_MARK = [220, 60, 60]; // red : peak-year marker function setup() { // Rule §5 — canvas inside setup, standard size, 2x density. createCanvas(720, 520); pixelDensity(2); // Plot rectangle. Computed from width/height so it survives a resize. plotL = 64; plotR = width - 24; plotT = 96; plotB = height - 104; // Rule §6 — controls in setup, ranges chosen to be meaningful. // p: 0.001..0.060. Empirical innovation coefficients cluster near 0.03. pSlider = createSlider(1, 60, 30, 1); pSlider.position(176, height - 78); pSlider.style("width", "150px"); // q: 0.10..0.90. Imitation coefficients typically dominate (q >> p). qSlider = createSlider(10, 90, 38, 1); qSlider.position(176, height - 52); qSlider.style("width", "150px"); // m: 1..100 million ultimate adopters. mSlider = createSlider(1, 100, 50, 1); mSlider.position(176, height - 26); mSlider.style("width", "150px"); } function draw() { background(248); // ---------- read controls ---------- const p = pSlider.value() / 1000; // 0.001 .. 0.060 const q = qSlider.value() / 100; // 0.10 .. 0.90 const m = mSlider.value(); // millions // ---------- derived quantities ---------- const a = p + q; // Peak year of new adopters (only real & positive when q > p). const tStar = q > p ? Math.log(q / p) / a : 0; // Time horizon: frame the whole curve regardless of p,q. const T = constrain(q > p ? tStar * 2.4 : 8 / a, 8, 80); // Peak height of the new-adopter bell (per year, in millions). const fPeak = bassF(tStar, p, q) * m; const newScaleMax = fPeak > 0 ? fPeak * 1.12 : m * a * 1.12; // ---------- reference geometry (rule §8 layer 1) ---------- drawAxes(T, m, newScaleMax); // peak-year marker (drawn under the curves) if (tStar > 0 && tStar < T) { const xs = map(tStar, 0, T, plotL, plotR); stroke(COL_MARK[0], COL_MARK[1], COL_MARK[2], 120); strokeWeight(1); drawingContext.setLineDash([5, 5]); line(xs, plotT, xs, plotB); drawingContext.setLineDash([]); } // ---------- active geometry (rule §8 layer 2) ---------- const N = 240; // new-adopters bell (orange), scaled to its own max noFill(); stroke(COL_NEW[0], COL_NEW[1], COL_NEW[2]); strokeWeight(2); beginShape(); for (let i = 0; i <= N; i++) { const t = (i / N) * T; const yv = bassF(t, p, q) * m; // new adopters/yr (millions) vertex(map(t, 0, T, plotL, plotR), map(yv, 0, newScaleMax, plotB, plotT)); } endShape(); // cumulative adoption S-curve (blue), scaled to 0..m stroke(COL_CUM[0], COL_CUM[1], COL_CUM[2]); strokeWeight(2); beginShape(); for (let i = 0; i <= N; i++) { const t = (i / N) * T; const cum = bassCum(t, p, q) * m; // cumulative adopters vertex(map(t, 0, T, plotL, plotR), map(cum, 0, m, plotB, plotT)); } endShape(); // ---------- HUD watermark (rule §2) ---------- drawHud(p, q, m, tStar, T, fPeak); // ---------- control labels (rule §7) ---------- drawSliderLabels(); } // ---------- Bass diffusion primitives (rule §10) ---------- // Cumulative fraction of the market that has adopted by time t. function bassCum(t, p, q) { const a = p + q; const e = Math.exp(-a * t); return (1 - e) / (1 + (q / p) * e); } // Fraction of the market adopting per unit time at time t (pdf). function bassF(t, p, q) { const a = p + q; const e = Math.exp(-a * t); const denom = 1 + (q / p) * e; return (a * a / p) * e / (denom * denom); } // ---------- drawing helpers ---------- function drawAxes(T, m, newScaleMax) { stroke(180); strokeWeight(1); line(plotL, plotT, plotL, plotB); // y axis (left) line(plotL, plotB, plotR, plotB); // x axis (time) noStroke(); fill(120); textFont("system-ui"); textSize(11); // x-axis label textAlign(CENTER, TOP); text("time (years since launch) -> " + nf(T, 0, 0) + " yr", (plotL + plotR) / 2, plotB + 8); // y-axis label (left, cumulative scale) push(); translate(plotL - 48, (plotT + plotB) / 2); rotate(-HALF_PI); textAlign(CENTER, CENTER); fill(COL_CUM[0], COL_CUM[1], COL_CUM[2]); text("cumulative adopters (M)", 0, 0); pop(); } function drawHud(p, q, m, tStar, T, fPeak) { noStroke(); textFont("system-ui"); // §2a — top-left title block. fill(20); textSize(20); textAlign(LEFT, TOP); text("Emerging technologies", 16, 14); textSize(12); fill(110); text("Wikitube microsim - en.wikitube.io/wiki/" + ARTICLE, 16, 40); // §2b — top-right control hints. textSize(11); fill(110); textAlign(RIGHT, TOP); text("sliders: p, q, m (innovation, imitation, market size)", width - 16, 14); text("blue = cumulative S-curve orange = new adopters / yr", width - 16, 30); // §2c — bottom-left live readouts (in canonical Bass symbols). textSize(12); textAlign(LEFT, BOTTOM); const ry = height - 92; fill(COL_CUM[0], COL_CUM[1], COL_CUM[2]); text("p = " + nf(p, 1, 3) + " q = " + nf(q, 1, 2) + " m = " + nf(m, 0, 0) + " M", 360, ry); fill(COL_MARK[0], COL_MARK[1], COL_MARK[2]); const tStarTxt = tStar > 0 ? nf(tStar, 0, 1) + " yr" : "0 (q <= p)"; text("peak year t* = " + tStarTxt, 360, ry + 18); fill(COL_NEW[0], COL_NEW[1], COL_NEW[2]); text("peak adopters = " + nf(fPeak, 0, 2) + " M / yr", 360, ry + 36); // §2d — bottom-right equation footer (ASCII only, rule §9). textSize(11); fill(80); textAlign(RIGHT, BOTTOM); text("f(t) = (p+q)^2/p * e^-(p+q)t / (1 + (q/p)e^-(p+q)t)^2", width - 12, height - 8); } function drawSliderLabels() { noStroke(); fill(60); textSize(12); textAlign(RIGHT, CENTER); text("p (innovation)", 168, height - 69); text("q (imitation)", 168, height - 43); text("m (market, M)", 168, height - 17); } ``` ## Links (Wikipedia order) <!-- injected from _registry/childlinks/Emerging_technologies.json (2026-07-30T02:09:12Z) --> `3D_bioprinting` · `3D_microfabrication` · `3D_optical_data_storage` · `3D_printing` · `3D_publishing` · `ARPANET` · `Accelerating_change` · `Accelerationism` · `Adaptive_compliant_wing` · `Aerogel` · `Agricultural_robot` · `Agriculture` · `Airborne_wind_turbine` · `Airless_tire` · `Aldehyde-stabilized_cryopreservation` · `Alexander_Bard` · `Allusion` · `Alternative_fuel_vehicle` · `Ambient_intelligence` · `Amorphous_metal` · `Ampakine` · `Ancient_Egyptian_technology` · `Ancient_Greek_technology` · `Ancient_Roman_technology` · `Ancient_technology` · `Anders_Sandberg` · `Animal_husbandry` · `Anti-gravity` · `Antimatter_weapon` · `Applications_of_artificial_intelligence` · `Arab_Agricultural_Revolution` · [[Architecture]] · `Arcology` · `Artificial_brain` · `Artificial_general_intelligence` · [[Artificial_intelligence]] · `Artificial_muscle` · `Artificial_organ` · `Artificial_photosynthesis` · `Artificial_womb` · `Association_for_Computing_Machinery` · `Atom` · `Atomic_Age` · `Atomtronics` · `Aubrey_de_Grey` · [[Augmented_reality]] · `Automated_vacuum_collection` · `Automation` · `Autostereoscopy` · `Aviation` · `Backpack_helicopter` · `Battery_electric_vehicle` · `Beam-powered_propulsion` · `Ben_Goertzel` · `Bill_Joy` · `Bill_McKibben` · `Bio-inspired_robotics` · `Bioconservatism` · `Bioethics` · `Biofabrication` · `Biofuel` · `Biomedical_technology` · `Bionic_contact_lens` · `Biopolitics` · `Biotechnology` · `Blockchain` · `Blue_Origin` · `Brain-reading` · `Brain_implant` · `Brain_transplant` · `Brain–computer_interface` · `British_Agricultural_Revolution` · `Bronze_Age` · `Bryan_Johnson` · `CNBC` · `Cancer` · `Cancer_vaccine` · `Carbon-neutral_fuel` · `Carbon_nanotube` · 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· `Pure_fusion_weapon` · `Quantum_algorithm` · `Quantum_amplifier` · `Quantum_bus` · `Quantum_cellular_automaton` · `Quantum_channel` · `Quantum_circuit` · `Quantum_complexity_theory` · [[Quantum_computing]] · `Quantum_cryptography` · `Quantum_dot` · `Quantum_dot_display` · `Quantum_dynamics` · `Quantum_error_correction` · `Quantum_finite_automaton` · `Quantum_image_processing` · `Quantum_imaging` · `Quantum_information` · `Quantum_key_distribution` · `Quantum_logic` · `Quantum_logic_clock` · `Quantum_logic_gate` · `Quantum_machine` · `Quantum_machine_learning` · [[Quantum_mechanics]] · `Quantum_metamaterial` · `Quantum_network` · `Quantum_neural_network` · `Quantum_optics` · `Quantum_programming` · `Quantum_sensor` · `Quantum_simulator` · `Quantum_teleportation` · `Racetrack_memory` · `Radio-frequency_identification` · `Railgun` · `Ray_Kurzweil` · `Regenerative_medicine` · `Renaissance_technology` · `Research_and_development` · `Resistive_random-access_memory` · `Retinal_implant` · 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· `The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity` · `The_Singularity_Is_Near` · `The_Singularity_Is_Nearer` · `The_Transhumanist_Wager` · `Thermal_energy_storage` · `Thermoacoustic_heat_engine` · `Three-dimensional_integrated_circuit` · `Tillage` · `Tim_Berners-Lee` · `Time-multiplexed_optical_shutter` · `Time_(magazine)` · `Timeline_of_historic_inventions` · [[Tissue_engineering]] · `Transhumanism` · `Transhumanist_Bill_of_Rights` · `Transit_Elevated_Bus` · `Turing_Award` · `Ultra-high-definition_television` · `UltraRAM` · `Uncrewed_vehicle` · `Unemployment` · `University_of_California` · `Urban_revolution` · `Utility_fog` · `Vaccine` · `Vactrain` · `Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket` · `Vehicular_communication_systems` · `Vernor_Vinge` · `Virotherapy` · [[Virtual_reality]] · `Virtual_retinal_display` · `Visual_prosthesis` · `Volumetric_display` · `Vortex` · `Vortex_engine` · [[Wayback_Machine]] · `Wearable_computer` · `What_We_Owe_the_Future` · `Whole_genome_sequencing` · `William_H._Andrews_(biologist)` · `Wireless_power_transfer` · `World_Wide_Web` · `Yuval_Noah_Harari` · `Zoltan_Istvan` ## From the Real GENERATIVE library ![Emerging technologies](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/Transhumanism_h%2B.svg/80px-Transhumanism_h%2B.svg.png) *Emerging technologies — placed from the Real G.E.N.E.R.A.T.I.V.E. course library (STEM and Music room). Source: Wikimedia Commons (via Wikipedia article media). [Details & license](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Transhumanism_h%2B.svg).* ![Animated: Emerging technologies](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c9/Hydrogen_maser.gif/92px-Hydrogen_maser.gif) *Animated: Emerging technologies — placed from the Real G.E.N.E.R.A.T.I.V.E. course library (STEM and Music room). Source: Wikimedia Commons (via Wikipedia article media). [Details & license](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hydrogen_maser.gif).* > Emerging technologies are technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generally new but also include old technologies finding new applications. ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_technologies)) <!-- REAL-GENERATIVE-MEDIA:END --> <!-- LOCAL-MEDIA-PASS:START --> ## From the vault media library !Emerging technologies thumb.png *Emerging Technologies — from the vault's own media holdings, placed 2026-07-09. MTN / Wikitube.io original · CC BY-SA 4.0.* <!-- LOCAL-MEDIA-PASS:END --> <!-- SIGN-SYSTEMS:START --> **Semiotic universals** (the notations and alphabet letters this article speaks — each opens its canonical card): diffusion · rotation · saturation. Index: the glyph gallery · SEMIOTICS PORTAL. <!-- SIGN-SYSTEMS:END --> > **Room:** Visualization · **Status:** ✅ shipped ## Overview Emerging technologies are technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generally new but also include old technologies finding new applications. Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo. _(Overview is shorter than 200 words; the pipeline should expand it from textbook context before publishing.)_ ## See also - Room hub: Visualization - p5.js Editor conventions: P5 JS EDITOR - Wiki root: MAIN --- *Scaffolded by `generative-microsim` from row 13 of the Visualization sheet on 2026-06-04T01:27:55Z.* <!-- REAL-GENERATIVE-MEDIA:START --> <!-- CRAFT-LINK:START g12 --> *Built to the [[WT!P5_js_Microsim_Master_Class|p5.js Master Class]].* <!-- CRAFT-LINK:END --> ## Wikipedia : Wikitube **Strict pair:** [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_technologies) : [Wikitube](https://en.wikitube.io/wiki/Emerging_technologies) ## Previous hub tags Tree parent: [[Self-organization]]. Legacy hubs: `GENERATIVE`. --- *Sources: 1 legacy note. Minted wave 1, 2026-07-30 (v1.6 order).*